Israel’s fundamental mistake has been to treat the Palestinian Arab problem as one that is within its capacity to solve alone. What is needed now is to start looking outside the paradigm of two states between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. Such efforts would include territorial contributions to a Palestinian Arab state from Egypt and Jordan, either by incentive or by force. Arabs respect strength and force, not negotiations.
Then there is the problem of the order of obligations under any peace treaty. Israelis are no longer in the mood to follow the Oslo model of territorial concessions in return for Palestinian Arab promises. Although Israeli prime ministers may continue to insist that they are prepared to evacuate thousands of Israelis from their homes, but only after Palestinian Arab terrorism stops, the Israeli public already knows the farce of "land for peace." Meanwhile Palestinian Arab leaders say they can only act against the terrorists after the parameters of a political settlement are clear.
Finally, there is no reason to trust the intention or ability of Palestinian Arab leaders to deliver on their promises. Israeli-Arab peacemaking has long been plagued by an overemphasis on promises made by Palestinian Arab leaders without any consideration of whether those promises command any popular support. Even if Mahmoud Abbas, Arafat’s long-time right-hand man, were sincere about making peace with Israel, he has consistently shown himself unwilling to take any risk and therefore incapable of delivering on any promise. Furthermore these Arabs continually program the next generation for terror attacks, killing themselves while murdering Israelis.
Palestinian Arab promises have repeatedly proven themselves not to be worth the paper they were written on – whether in Lebanon in the ‘70s, Jordan prior to Black September, or with Israel. Since the Saudi-brokered Mecca agreement between Hamas and Fatah, there have already been five cease-fire agreements. After each one, lethal fire was resumed within hours.
The situation in Gaza is already one of anarchic clan warfare, and will only worsen as the population grows and all resources are plowed into arms and hatred rather than economic development. The resultant instability will inevitably spill across the border into Israel, and doom peace.
Most Israelis recognize this reality. Yet there remains a strong impulse to run after will-o'-the-whisp hints of peace, such as those currently coming from Damascus, or at the very least a feeling that Israel must ever be ready to entertain any peace initiative and begin negotiations in order to demonstrate its eagerness for peace.
In a recent lecture to foreign journalists, Robert Aumann, winner of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in game-theory, argued that these impulses must be suppressed for survival. Israel, he said, must stop conveying the impression to the Arabs of being desperate for peace at any price. The horrified journalists responded to Aumann’s argument by pointing out again and again that if Israel adopts the waiting strategy he advocates, there is no possibility of peace in the near future. To which he kept responding in the same way. True, there is no hope in the near future. But unless the Palestinian Arabs become convinced that the Jews are here to stay, and start thinking about building their own society, there will be no peace in the long-run either.
The Arab strategy is not to defeat Israel in battle, but to gradually wear down Israel and make life unbearable. Time, the Arabs feel, is on their side. The key for Israel, then, is to convince the Arabs that "We have time; we have patience; we have stamina." Israel’s weariness, its various capitulations, gestures and convergence plans have only served to convince these Arab "cousins" that " Israel no longer has spiritual strength, that Israel has no time, that Israel is calling for a time-out."
Over the past quarter century, there has been a sea change in the Israeli consensus about the contours of a future peace with the Palestinian Arabs. That change has not been met by any reciprocal movement on the Palestinian Arab side. Instead Palestinian Arab attitudes on refugees, the status of Jerusalem and terror have only hardened. The Palestinian Arab public must show some willingness to compromise and stop teaching murder and hatred to its people.
In the meantime, Israel’s best strategy is to infuse mass media education to eventually change the Palestinian Arab mindset.